Tottenham currently sit second in the Premier League, behind only defending champions Manchester City. And before a shocking 4-1 loss to struggling rivals Chelsea on Monday night, Spurs were in first, flying higher than any other side in the English top flight.
However, Tottenham shouldn’t be considered true contenders to win the title. That may seem unfair, given the fact that rivals Arsenal were able to push City to their limit last season. The point isn’t that Tottenham are fraudulent or aren’t capable of winning the title under Ange Postecoglou; this piece isn’t meant to be about bashing Spurs. What they have already accomplished this season, especially without a bona fide Ballon d’Or candidate in Harry Kane, is already incredible.
Rather, this piece is about setting different expectations, discussing the process, and being realistic about areas in which Tottenham are a little weaker – there are similarities to the weaknesses Arsenal had that ultimately undid them in their Premier League title chase last season.
Tottenham missed out on European football entirely last season despite having the best player in the Premier League. Yes, Kevin De Bruyne and Erling Haaland had the staggering statistics, but Harry Kane was honestly even better when you contextualize just how much he had to do for Tottenham. Kane himself was a goal-scoring machine, finding the back of the net 30 times for the second time in his career. On paper, he only had three assists, but with 1.5 key passes per game, his creativity was largely wasted.
The problem with Tottenham is that they were too weak everywhere else. They had one of the worst defenses and midfields of any team in the top half of the Premier League. Their goalkeeper situation was untenable. Next to Kane, Dejan Kulusevski played well, but he was the only one. Son Heung-min had a shocking down season, while Richarlison had major struggles in his first season with Spurs.
Amidst that backdrop of not even finishing in the top seven, Tottenham reaching first through the first 10 Matchdays of the 2023/24 Premier League season is almost miraculous. The club was filled with turmoil and drama last season with the way Antonio Conte explosively left the club, publicly blasting Daniel Levy and the decision-makers.
So it was good to see Tottenham make key transfers in response. Destiny Udogie was already going to come in as an Antonio Conte-approved signing from Serie A, but Spurs also added a serious goalkeeper upgrade in Guglielmo Vicario, who was only criticized by the kind of proudly ignorant Premier League fans who can’t be bothered with actually watching games before forming an opinion. Micky van de Ven was an even more coveted signing in defense. And, of course, James Maddison has proven to be a steal in that 10 role, gelling the attack and helping the team partially overcome the loss of Kane (we’ll get to that later). He has legitimately been the most important player in the Premier League so far in 2023/24.
The thing is, it’s too early in the Postecoglou project to expect the team to challenge for the Premier League title. Going from eighth to first is such a huge leap, when you consider how many competitive teams there are in the table. Manchester City is easily the best until proven otherwise; they are the best team in all of Europe until proven otherwise as the 2022/23 Champions League winners. Arsenal aren’t far behind them. Neither are Liverpool. Tottenham look just as good as those sides right now, but the gap between City and everyone else always seems to be vaster than anticipated.
Both this point and the previous one go hand-in-hand, and it may be the decisive point in a grueling Premier League season. Even without the “burden” of European football in the schedule, depth is still king in the Premier League and will be tested. Because fatigue is only as big of an issue as it leads to a greater risk of injury. That risk of injury is constantly there. Deeper teams do better in the Premier League because they are able to replace key players who are injured. And it often seems as if the key injuries pile up at exactly the same time.
Depth is the biggest reason why Manchester City were able to outlast Arsenal’s stiff challenge last season. Arsenal actually led for much of the campaign, but they wilted in the end, to the point where the final table difference was five points – maybe more than what you’d expect for a title race that was mostly neck-and-neck.
Tottenham don’t have enough depth yet. They are very reliant on a few players. What happens if Cristian Romero or Micky van de Ven go down? Tottenham still have serious question marks in defense after the stalwart four starters. The midfield remains far too thin. Maddison and Son are vital to Spurs’ success. If one of them goes down, the attack may struggle to score sufficient goals. Richarlison stepping up would mitigate that, and Tottenham did make a smart signing for the future in Manor Solomon. But relying on them to pick up the slack for Son or Maddison is risky.
Spurs can make signings in the winter, but as Arsenal found out, the winter transfer window is a great way to make panic-buys that don’t help your club in the short term and even hurt them in the long run. Getting someone in the winter to fit the team seamlessly with such a quick turn-around and no real offseason is more difficult than it sounds on paper. And then if you end up overpaying for someone who doesn’t fit – teams ask for more money in the winter because they will not be able to replace that departing player as easily – you could be saddled with a difficult-to-remove contract for years.
Finally, we come to Harry Kane. Thanks to Son’s (expected) rebound, Maddison’s brilliance, and Kulusevski’s continued quality play, Tottenham have still been able to score goals. And actually, if we are going to apportion credit for some of the attacking quality, then we have to give a lot of it to Ange Postecoglou’s aggressive, innovative pressing tactics that help make the most out of that central partnership between playmaker Maddison and scorer Son.
However, if you look a little closer at the table, there are five teams with more goals scored than Tottenham, including two outside the top four in Aston Villa and (somewhat surprisingly) Newcastle. So in that sense, Tottenham’s attack is more “very good” than “truly great”.
Replacing a player like Kane is basically impossible for Tottenham. The man scored 30 goals last season while being the best all-around striker in the Premier League in terms of chance-creation and hold-up play, even if that didn’t get rewarded appropriately in the “box score” because of the issues around him. It is going to take a committee effort to overcome this loss, and for as good as Son and Maddison have been, their performances have mostly been about upgrading what Spurs had in 2022/23. With them and Kane, Spurs would have a title challenger. With them and without Kane, Spurs are still not there yet.
Part of that committee replacement would involve someone like Richarlison or Solomon stepping up. Solomon is probably still too new to realistically approach that level, but the Richarlison we saw at Everton could easily be enough of a game-changer to get Tottenham somewhere. But given his struggles, it would be unfair to put too much on his plate. He needs to be eased along to get back to who he was with the Toffees. Perhaps he might prove to be someone who can only be a superstar at a club lower in the table than a star among stars. Only time will tell what is best for him.
Expecting Tottenham to win the Premier League is a step too soon. They don’t have the depth or the star power to compete with Manchester City, and if you look at goal differential, they are behind Liverpool, Arsenal, and Newcastle for a reason. They don’t have the overall defensive quality of those teams – even if they have gotten a lot better – and they don’t have the star power in the attack that Liverpool does with Mohamed Salah, Luis Díaz, and Darwin Núñez.
However, Tottenham have what it takes to finish in the top four. You cannot definitively argue that every one of those three teams is better than Spurs. A Tottenham fan could make a compelling argument for their team being better than any one of them, just not Manchester City.
The Postecoglou ride has been fantastic so far. There are signs that Spurs are finally building a clear, long-term project with a vision and appropriate player recruitment, viewing the signings they made in the summer 2023 transfer window. A top-four finish is realistic and should be the goal for Tottenham every season. Getting there amidst the improved quality of the Premier League would be an accomplishment.
But it is no guarantee either. As the loss to Chelsea reminded fans, Tottenham will have bumps in the road. This is a post-Kane retooling that is more successful initially than anyone could have expected, and there is no reason to believe Spurs will fall apart. Yet if your expectation is instant gratification and an against-the-odds upset of Manchester City, then you may only be setting yourself up for disappointment.
