It sometimes seems like a young, intriguing player in the league receives a significant contract extension from his team every week. This is a trend that has affected both large and small markets around the league. Baltimore is one location this hasn’t yet made its way to; thus yet, nothing has materialized there.
The Kansas City Royals announced on Monday the latest of the major contract extensions: a deal with shortstop Bobby Witt Jr. that could last up to 14 years, or as little as seven years if Witt exercises his opt out with nearly $150 million already in the bank.
It would be entertaining to witness the Orioles make a commitment of that nature to someone. This did not seem like a plausible situation as long as John Angelos was leading the squad, which was likely detrimental to the team in the long run. Maybe the front staff will adopt a different mindset after David Rubenstein and the rest of his ownership group take control regarding the best times to lock up young players and give them an opportunity to play for the Orioles for the duration of their careers.
Even after a sub-.300 on-base percentage and subpar defensive performance in his rookie season, which resulted in a 0.9 WAR debut, Witt’s talent as a player continued to be highly touted. But he bounced back with a 4.4 WAR season in which he played closer to average shortstop defense, hitting.276/.319/.495 and swiping 49 bases in addition to hitting 30 home runs. That’s making a big variety of contributions.
Before the 2022 season, Witt, Adley Rutschman of our team, and Julio Rodríguez of Seattle formed a formidable trio of MLB prospects. Two of those three players have now inked massive nine-figure contracts; Rodriguez, for example, got a seven-year contract last season with a player option that would extend the contract to twelve years and almost $210 million, with a guaranteed $119.3 million.
However, since Witt took the symbolic huge bag of money before his age 23 season and Rodriguez signed his contract before his age 22, these deals are not comparable for Rutschman. Rutschman, on the other side, turns 26 today, February 6, 2024. In the absence of their new agreements, Witt and Rodríguez would have become free agents before turning 27 and 28, respectively. Rutschman is only expected to receive this chance when he approaches his thirty-first season.
On the actuarial tables of life expectancy, there is less of a difference between these ages. Rutschman’s peak big league output occurred a long time ago, made even more significant by the fact that catchers typically age more slowly than other player positions.
Even though it would be nice to sign Rutschman for eternity, given the time until free agency math, it would likely take a nine-year contract to convince him to forgo potentially enormous arbitration salaries before he would be eligible for free agency payouts. For years seven, eight, and nine and ages 32 to 34, Rutschman receiving $35 million like Witt (or more) is a risky prospect for the organization.
Maybe Rutschman won’t age as quickly as some, and by not using him excessively, it appears the Orioles are attempting to prevent this from happening. Take into account that Rutschman caught 934.2 innings total and 97 complete games in 2023. Future MLB catcher Matt Wieters was heavily utilized in his early career, which culminated in 1,201 innings caught and 127 complete games in 2013. After his season at age 26, Wieters underwent Tommy John surgery in 2014, which ultimately allowed him to resume playing at an exceptional level. This isn’t a “Keep him around forever!” kind of difference. Most likely.
Based on their age and the amount of talent they have already demonstrated, the Orioles do have players that you could say, “Extend him forever!” Jackson Holliday and Gunnar Henderson are those guys. Attempting to consider extensions for these men has a straightforward issue: they are represented by agent Scott Boras, who has a well-known track record of helping his clients reach free agency and who most likely ends up with a group of players who carry this ambition into professional ball themselves.
In his first interview with Orioles reporters, new player Corbin Burnes provided an example of this in action, responding to a question about testing free agency with, “I think I’ve been pretty honest in that being a year away from free agency is something everyone wants to get to.” Everyone is eager to choose their playing location. Although I support each player receiving his or her salary at the time and location of their choosing, it is undoubtedly less enjoyable when your team has the #29 payroll in the league. Hey, excellent news! The O’s are now up to #25 with the acquisition of Burnes.
Had it not been for the Boras influence, Henderson’s worth going into the previous season was probably pretty similar to that of Arizona’s Corbin Carroll. Carroll, like Henderson, was selected in the 2019 high school draft and rose to the #2 prospect spot for 2023. At the end of the 2022 season, each of these players saw roughly a month of action, and they all performed admirably to set themselves up for successful rookie seasons in 2023. These were the winners of Rookie of the Year in the AL and NL.
Carroll and the Diamondbacks inked an agreement prior to the previous season, which guarantees him $111 million spread over eight years. Arizona has a ninth-year option that would add $28 million in salary with a $5 million buyout, so there’s a fair potential that this contract will end up being nine years and $134 million in total. This was signed before Carroll, at 22 years old, played in 35 major league games. Henderson would have cost much more even without taking Boras into account, especially after winning the ROY. If the Rubenstein group could provide enough Benjamin stacks to support the armored car, then there would be some possibility.
Similarly, the blueprint for a Holliday pre-debut deal is already in place. Like Carroll was to Henderson last year, Milwaukee Brewers outfield prospect Jackson Chourio is ranked #2 to Holliday on many prospect rankings. Chourio signed a contract that guaranteed him $82 million over eight years, with two team options that could extend it to ten years and $128 million. Chourio will play his age 20 season this year, just like Holliday, when he turns 20 next month. For Holliday, I would seal that deal right now, and Mike Elias would too. Neither of us is the most important person in terms of opinion.
Some people are steadfast in their belief that one of these players can be signed to a longer contract. It is true that there are incredibly unusual instances in which clients of Boras sign contracts ahead of time, forfeiting some free agent years. The crazy dreamers will still have to wait at least two years until Henderson reaches that threshold before being let down by reality, as even these infrequent exceptions are limited to transactions that occurred after a player had reached arbitration.
For an Orioles prospect, one more contract extension before the 2024 season has a reasonable comparable. Colt Keith, an infield prospect for the Detroit Tigers, has signed a pre-debut agreement worth $29 million over six seasons. The deal also includes options that could extend Detroit’s obligation to pay Keith up to $50 million over nine years. Keith and Coby Mayo are fairly similar in terms of age and current prospect stock.
The fact that there is now nowhere on the roster for Mayo to fit is more of a barrier to the transaction. If a prospect is adamant about not playing first base in the Ryan/Ryan platoon, they may insist on signing Mayo and cutting those other guys. I hope we can all agree that it is unlikely that Elias—or indeed, any GM in this role—will take this action.
Finding a suitable extension fit among the team’s more seasoned players, even for something far more modest in years, is difficult. I believe Cedric Mullins and the Orioles could have worked out a four- or possibly five-year contract starting this season if he hadn’t suffered a collapse in the second part of the previous season. In a different 2023, John Means would have been a compelling contender for a three-year extension right now if he had returned in July and pitched well the remainder of the summer. That is not the case.
It would be great if the Orioles capitalized on this trend and created this generation of the team’s Oriole for life—a guy who will stick around through multiple eras, buy a house here, and be a fixture after retirement. That brings us back to where we started, and where I’ve been for at least the past year.
There aren’t currently any likely Orioles contenders for this for a variety of reasons. When the proper young Orioles player does happen to come along at the appropriate moment, we could have some hope to obtain a good deal once Angelos is no longer making the payroll decisions.
