With two starters out by injuries and DL Hall now in Milwaukee, the Orioles bullpen scenario is becoming a little murky. This is all the more reason why Danny Coulombe and Cionel Pérez, two left-handed relievers, must have a strong season for the Orioles.
The 2023 seasons of the two lefties were significantly dissimilar. It was a beautiful beginning to Coulombe’s Orioles career. The journeyman southpaw, who was acquired for cash in March, developed into a high-leverage reliever for a 101-win team before agreeing to a $2.3 million deal in the summer, which includes a $4 million option for 2025.
Not as pleasant for Pérez. Remember that the Cuban lefty had a lifetime 6.02 ERA over parts of four seasons when he was claimed off waivers by the Orioles in the winter of 2021. Like the 2022 Orioles, he appeared out of nowhere in 2022, with a 1.40 ERA in 66 innings while reducing his walk rate from the previous season.
However, Pérez had a terrible year in 2023: his walk rate rose by over 40% (4.56 BB/9) and his ERA soared by two runs (3.54 ERA). He also had a decline in strikeouts per game (7.43 K/9).
How would these two southpaws fare in 2024?
Let us take Pérez first. The following is what the Fangraphs ZiPS projection system says about him:
This one seems unfair if you only consider ERA/FIP. It’s as if the writers at Fangraphs aren’t asking themselves, “Will the 2024 Pérez look more like the 2022 or the 2023 one?” rather than “How much worse will the Pérez continue to get in 2024?”
Remember that Pérez’s ERA was still only 3.54 and his FIP was quite near to that, at 3.84, despite his troubles in 2023. Additionally, he gave up a lot fewer home runs than their projection (0.34 HR/9)—roughly a third fewer than what they had projected.
However, this is also generous in other respects: it places the lefty’s walk rate and fWAR in the middle of the two seasons and presumes a rebound season in terms of strikeouts.
In other words, FanGraphs predicts a Cionel Pérez who walks batters at a decent rate and gives up a tonne of hits, particularly hard ones, but who also whiffs batters frequently. Overall, he is more valuable to his team than he was the previous year.
The case for the over
It all truly comes down to command with Pérez. And his biggest weakness has always been walking batters. He walked too many batters (more over three per game) even in his breakout ’22 season. Should he continue the concerning patterns from the previous season, free bases will be reached, which will force pitchers to overcompensate with hittable fastballs in the zone, which will result in the exact barrage of home homers that Fangraphs is projecting.
The case for the under:
Pérez spent a large portion of last July suffering from pain in his left forearm. That may indicate almost anything to a pitcher. He didn’t miss much time—aside from a stay on the 15-day IL—so it’s plausible that his control issues were due to an injury rather than an irrepressible Wild Thing that the Orioles pitching coaches couldn’t handle. His K/9 rate was 8.6, which is around where he will be in 2022, and his second-half ERA was 2.35.
You also have to adore his raw stuff: his slider is virtually unhittable when he is locating his rocket of a fastball. Maybe all he needs is to be well.
And now for Danny Coulombe. What is the projected performance of this left-handed reliever by ZiPS for 2024? It doesn’t love him either, by the way.
Oh. Not much in Coulombe’s 2023 season points to such a deterioration. However, perhaps not much from his eight previous seasons indicated he would be a great fit with the Orioles?
Danny Coulombe was one of the Orioles’ best pitchers in 2023, finishing behind only Kyle Bradish, Félix Bautista, Yennier Cano, Tyler Wells, and Dean Kremer with a 2.81 ERA in 51.1 innings, 1.110 WHIP, and 1.2 fWAR. WAR doesn’t often tell the whole story, but in this case it seems true: Coulombe, who was a complete unknown coming into the season, turned out to be one of the bullpen’s most dependable relievers.
These stats actually undervalue his value because Coulombe was used more than any other O’s reliever to get out of high-leverage situations, even more so than Cano and Bautista, who had ludicrous years. It is evident from Brandon Hyde’s usage patterns who he trusts and who he doesn’t. Danny Coulombe was part of the circle of trust.
He had excellent peripherals except from it. He walked just 12 batters while striking out 58 in 51.1 innings pitched. His average exit velocity of 85.5 MPH placed him in the 94th percentile, and his projected ERA placed him among the top 10% of MLB pitchers. A man with a 91.5 mph fastball is not going to put up a 29.3% whiff rate.
The case for the over
Perhaps you think that every reliever for the Orioles experiences a sophomore slump? (See, Austin Voth or Pérez, Cionel.)
The case for the under
With a 2.67 ERA in the first half and a 3.00 ERA in the second, Coulombe’s 2023 success was maintained throughout the season. The only other peripheral statistics that really worry me are the big differences in home and away runs: Coulombe had an ERA of 1.63 at Camden Yards but 4.18 elsewhere, and he also had a home run rate of 0.33 at home compared to 1.16 HR/9 abroad. Therefore, I suppose he shouldn’t be used at Fenway Park against right-handed hitters.
Apart from that, Coulombe has been improving over the previous few years, and the Orioles pitching coaches significantly altered his arsenal last season, both in terms of the variety of pitches and the actual items. That implies that his improved form is long-lasting. Thus, I don’t think Coulombe’s regression will look like this, even if it does.
What are your thoughts on Fangraphs’ 2024 projection for these two lefties?
