If you’re anything like me, you shrugged or yawned when the Orioles acquired Ryan O’Hearn in January of last year. Maybe both.
He had participated in five major league seasons at that point, having performed poorly in all but the first. For Kansas City, O’Hearn hit a pitiful.025 from 2019 to 22.211/.282/.351 in 298 games with a pitiful OPS+ of 70 before the irate Royals sent him to the O’s in exchange for cash. The Orioles placed him amongst a group of flirtatious, left-handed first basemen, including Franchy Cordero and Lewin Díaz. It appeared like O’Hearn was just another player who would be cut by the team before Opening Day, much like Cordero, or who would play the whole season in the minor leagues.
Rather, O’Hearn became one of the Orioles’ most improbable, unexpected success stories of the team’s incredible 2023 campaign. When O’Hearn was called up from Triple-A Norfolk in April, he began ripping the ball’s cover off and just kept doing it. Some of the most memorable events of the year were written by him, such as the game-tying three-run home run he hit in Toronto against Blue Jays closer Jordan Romano, which set off an incredible three-game sweep in May. While Ryan Mountcastle was out with vertigo, O’Hearn emerged as the Orioles’ starting first baseman. He played so effectively that he kept getting regular at-bats even after Mountcastle returned.
O’Hearn unleashed offensive firepower not seen since his spectacular 44-game major league debut in 2018 as a 24-year-old with the Royals, when he OPS’d.950. Last year, O’Hearn was hitting the ball with such abandon; he concluded 2024 with an average exit velocity of 89th and a hard-hit rate in the 94th percentile. His previous career best was 3.5 points lower than his 51.5 hard hit %. It’s obvious that the O’s researched O’Hearn and identified a batter who could become a star with a few tweaks. The MLB’s infield shift ban from the previous season undoubtedly benefited the eager O’Hearn as well, giving him some extra hits to the right side that overshifting would have prevented.
Nevertheless, given his numerous years of non-performance in the past, some doubters questioned when O’Hearn’s 2024 success would finally come to an end. As the season came to a finish, he did experience a little slump, going 0-for-23 in the penultimate week and reaching a career-high 112 games played. In the ALDS, he went just 1-for-5 and only started one of the three games since Texas started two southpaw pitchers.
O’Hearn, who is eligible for arbitration, was signed by the O’s this winter to a $3.5 million deal that includes a $7.5 million option to buy out his first year of free agency in 2025. O’Hearn enters 2024 with a roster slot firmly in place. This time last year, it was unlikely that he would ever play for the Orioles. However, what type of campaign can we anticipate from the seasoned first baseman?
The argument in favour of the over
Given his many years of non-performance before to joining the Orioles, ZiPS’s prediction of a regression from O’Hearn this year is not shocking; nonetheless, it seems a bit severe to drop nearly 40 points from his.801 OPS in 2023. It is reasonable to believe that O’Hearn, who was clearly a much better hitter once the Orioles’ development squad got hold of him, may again finish near the.800 OPS mark this season, especially if the Birds employ him nearly entirely against right-handed pitching.
The under’s case:
Despite all of O’Hearn’s hitting prowess, his inability to walk runners is one trait that will always limit his development. He was in barely the second percentile last year with a pitiful 4.1 walk %. Without walks to fall back on, O’Hearn’s OBP might plunge if he is unluckier with his batting average this year and more of his hit balls land in fielders’ gloves rather than on grass. Additionally, he might have his playing time cut short by Heston Kjerstad, another lefty swinger with subpar defence, or by other Orioles who switch up at double play.
How do you feel, Chatters of Camden? Is O’Hearn poised for another successful season, or was his 2023 just a one-time anomaly?
