At first glance, it appears to be a rather simple choice. Dak Prescott of the Cowboys was maybe the greatest quarterback in the NFL this season. With 410 completions and 36 touchdowns, 4,516 yards, and a career-high quarterback rating of 105.9, he led the NFL.
In addition, Dallas arranged his deal in his most recent extension to include a sizable balloon payment in the last year. The Cowboys can’t afford the over $59 million cap hit he will have in 2024. So, the way forward is clear: give Prescott a substantial payment and modify the agreement to avoid the cap hit.
Yes, but it’s not really that easy. Former NFL general manager Jeff Diamond stated to Matt Lombardo on his Substack page—Lombardo now contributes to Heavy Sports—that he would comprehend if Cowboys owner Jerry Jones is having sleepless nights about the Prescott predicament.
Diamond estimated the final terms of the Prescott deal to be four years and approximately $55 million annually.
Cowboys’ Dak Prescott Has $59 Million on the Table
That is hefty, obviously. At Spotrac, Prescott’s market value is tabbed at $50.8 million, with a four-year, $203 million contract predicted. But there has been speculation, too, that Prescott will get as much as $60 million per year.
Currently, the highest paid quarterback is the Bengals’ Joe Burrow, who is on a five-year, $275 million deal he signed just ahead of the start of this season. That’s $55 million per year. No. 2 on the list is Justin Herbert ($52.5 million), followed by Lamar Jackson ($52 million) and Jalen Hurts ($51 million).
It’s difficult to believe Prescott won’t pressure the Cowboys to give him the highest compensation possible since he can leave the negotiation table and still earn $59 million this season.
Diamond informed Lombardo, “Dak has tremendous leverage because the team needs to get a deal done.” “To save about $31 million against the cap this offseason, they probably need to do a four-year extension for between $210 and $220 million, with a $50 million signing bonus prorated over five years and a low 2024 cap number to about $24 million in total.”
“The guarantee probably be about $200 million. That’s pretty strong for a really good regular season quarterback, but not so great in the postseason, with a 2-5 playoff record and coming off a bad loss to the Packers.”
Playoff Flops Are the Big Negative
Ah, yes, the loss to the Packers. And the playoff record. If the Cowboys have something on their side of the ledger to chop down Prescott’s payout, it’s the fact that he has flopped so badly as a playoff quarterback over the years.
Prescott’s counter, of course, could be that Burrow has done nothing in the playoffs, nor Herbert. Jackson has underachieved. Probably the biggest shot Prescott could take, though, is this: What are your other choices?
Indeed, if the Cowboys decided to walk away from re-signing Prescott, they would be stuck with a team that has several holes and no cap space in the short term and not many other options in the long term.
The Cowboys brought in Trey Lance as insurance for the Prescott negotiations, but given the numbers Prescott put up in the regular season, threatening to hand the reins over to Lance is nonsensical.
