The Baltimore Orioles continue the 2024 series on team offence. With 4.98 runs scored per game in 2023, the Orioles placed fourth in the American League and eighth in the Majors.
This season, my default lineups are derived from FanGraphs Roster Resource Depth Charts*. The Lineup Analysis Tool (LAT) is used with that Brandon Hyde batting order with Musings Marcels as the projected hitter. With that information, the following outcomes (runs per game) are obtained:
- Best lineup: 4.87
- Probable lineup: 4.80
- Worst lineup: 4.67
- Regressed lineup: 4.47
- There is only a 0.2 run difference between the best and worst Orioles lineups. This typically indicates that the batters have comparable skill sets and that most have respectable OBPs with modest power. The Orioles do lineup their two best hitters at the top of the order, followed by a capable ninth-place batter. Although leading off with a catcher is often not a smart move, especially at home, the LAT would like to flip Gunnar Henderson and Adley Rutschman. Rutschman can get his gear on and get ready to go from defence to offence when he bats second.
- There is a dispute between the Orioles and the LAT regarding Ryan O’Hearn. He will bat fourth for the Orioles, which is a crucial LAT position. O’Hearn is batting eighth for the LAT, suggesting that he is the team’s least effective hitter out of the starting order.
Given that Baltimore has a strong analytics team, I’m assuming they find value in the information. For O’Hearn, Camden Yards should be a superior power park than Kansas City, which he previously called home. While FanGraphs estimates more power, Marcels’ projection and O’Hearn’s OBP are similar in the roster page FanGraphs projection. If only the Orioles were right in this instance.
- The Orioles have enormous upside potential with Jackson Holliday. He played at every minor league level in two seasons as a teenager, often with power to go along with his excellent OBPs. The figures above might serve as a floor for the Orioles season if he can produce at a respectable level at seasonal age of 20.
