Daniel Farke intended to enjoy some cake and coffee over the weekend to clear his thoughts before taking on the next Leeds United task and the accompanying headache.
Playing Sheffield Wednesday on a Friday night after the Tuesday, the Saturday midday kickoff, and the Wednesday night FA Cup journey to London did have one benefit: it gave Leeds the weekend off and an entire eight days between games. Farke had an easy weekend: “Couch, cake, coffee, as usual. Really, no. To be honest, I’m excited about a very laid-back weekend. The past several weeks were incredibly stressful and loaded with work. For the time being, not only for myself, but also for the players and the entire staff, it’s crucial.
We have come a long way, and now is the time to relax and have fun for the next two or three days. At my age, having fun means recuperating on the couch. I actually look forward to getting some sleep, resting for a while, and not doing too much moving or thinking about football. We’ll talk about Millwall, our next opponent, early next week, but for the next few days, I simply want to have fun.”
There will be a few apparent topics to cover when Farke takes the pitch in front of his players on Sunday to speak to Millwall, the Elland Road visitors. After spending more than three years away, Neil Harris is returning to The Den as manager for the second time. Since his resignation in October 2019, Leeds has had four permanent managers come and gone, as well as moves to and from the Premier League. Even though a lot has happened, when the two groups of fans finally meet, it will undoubtedly be just like the past. Additionally, Leeds will be familiar with the assignment assigned to them because Harris will be in the opposing dugout.
As they were in 2019–20, Millwall remains one of the league’s most potent set-piece teams. They then scored 20 runs off of dead balls, and they are currently down to 14. They have only scored 21 goals this season from open play, but only Cardiff City has scored more from set pieces. Furthermore, in their last four games without a loss, they have scored five goals, although only one of those goals has come from open play since Harris’s return.
Japhet Tanganga, who received a blow from the goalie for his header, scored a daring header and a penalty kick to lead his team to an unexpected 2-1 victory over Southampton. Their win vs Watford came from a Zian Flemming free kick, which struck too strongly for Ben Hamer to save. And Tanganga’s header from a back post corner was all that separated them from Birmingham in their victory. Regarding his game-winning header, Harris stated, “In the end, he’s headed the ball a lot [in both boxes], and to be a good Millwall center-half you have to do that.”
Farke will go into this week knowing exactly what to prepare for, based on his remarks made during his tenure as Norwich’s manager. “Cardiff and Neil Harris are two coaches who have a reputation for being very set-piece conscious,” Farke stated three years ago. The first priority is to maintain possession and keep them as far away from our goal as you can, but you also need to be alert to defend them since no other team has scored as many goals from set pieces. Man City has always been among the teams that gives up the fewest goals from set pieces, but it’s not as though their players are particularly tall; instead, they simply don’t give up free kicks or corners.
Manchester City has demonstrated a strong ability to score from set pieces as well. As Pep Guardiola once observed, “The taker is the key to set pieces.” You have a chance if you take it well. The taker is the most crucial factor, thus it doesn’t matter if you move towards the close or far post.” In addition to having ten free kicks between them, George Saville, George Honeyman, and Joe Bryan each have double digits in crucial passes—the passes that result in a shot—from corners. Compared to other Championship teams, Millwall has produced the most set-piece shots, and with a set-piece anticipated goals ratio of 14.78, they are converting nearly all of them.
Delivery is obviously key but given that their most prolific corner taker, Saville, only has a pair of assists from corners and his accurate versus inaccurate corner ratio is far inferior to that of Crycensio Summerville, Dan James or Ilia Gruev, the Londoners have something else going for them when the ball is swung in. Collective danger. Their dead-ball threat is not simply limited to one or two big men attacking the ball. Kevin Nisbet’s three set-piece goals – one of which was a lovely free-kick he curled home against Birmingham City – places him inside the division’s top 10 for the metric. No fewer than four of his team-mates are just a set-piece goal behind him. And a number of the goals they have scored from corners, free-kicks or throw-ins have required persistence and belligerence. Fighting for the first ball, causing problems, taking advantage.
Considering that Millwall has won more aerial fights than any other team in the Championship this year—roughly 300 more than Leeds, in fact—it should not come as a huge surprise. The good news is that they’ve lost approximately 300 fewer duels than Millwall, so the lads who will be subjected to an excruciating aerial barrage this Saturday aren’t exactly light touch themselves in the air. In the air, the Lions win almost 50% of their challenges, while Leeds win about 52% of theirs. Leeds has also allowed just seven goals from set-pieces, which is tied for the second-lowest total in the division as of right now, much like their upcoming opponents.
The other potential source of pain comes, quite literally, from Millwall’s status as the division’s most penalised outfit. They’ve been pinged by referees for 105 more fouls than Leeds this season. Millwall have the fourth worst disciplinary record in terms of yellows and reds, with 85 and one respectively. And though Harris’ first three games in charge saw Millwall conceding fewer fouls than their seasonal per-game average, they gave away 17 of them last time out against Birmingham. But, again, this will be nothing new for Leeds, the fourth most-fouled team in the league. And keeping a lid on it in the face of aggression should not be a big ask for the owners of the Championship’s best disciplinary record.
Ultimately, this is unlikely to be a game the likes of which we have not seen before this season. And if Millwall come to Elland Road with the intention to be combative, draw Leeds into a physical battle and then profit from set-pieces, would you blame them? Sitting just five points clear of the drop zone, they will do what they have to do to using the tools at their disposal. If you have a Jake Cooper then you’ll use him as a Jake Cooper can be used. Assistant head coach David Livermore told South London Press: “There is that quote when Jose Mourinho was asked what his playing philosophy is and he answered: “Well, what players have I got?” It’s true. What players have we got in the building and what is the best way to achieve the objective which, for us at the minute, is to move away from the bottom three or four places in the league? Medium to long-term I get it, you want to be at the right end of the table and playing entertaining free-flowing football but that isn’t always the reality, is it?Our job is to get these players winning football matches. We are coming up against some really good teams and the first two we faced were ex-Premier League clubs that have fantastic budgets. They play a really good brand of football but we found a way to win – that is ultimately what the game is about, scoring one more goal than the opponent.”
You can never discount the possibility of a surprise, even if Millwall have scored just one counter attack goal this entire season and even if they won’t see a lot of the ball. Southampton had a staggering 81 per cent of the possession and still lost at home to the Lions. Therein lies a warning for Leeds. Whether or not they’ve seen it all before and Millwall’s challenge is just a fresh badge on the kind of performance so many have mustered at Elland Road, this will be no sleepy Sunday afternoon fixture. Leeds will have to be alive to every conceivable threat – especially when the ball is dead.
